One of NASA’s most ambitious missions, bringing back samples from the surface of Mars for analysis on Earth, is in trouble. Cost estimates are blowing out, and some scientists are questioning the priority given to the project. However, in an announcement on the mission’s future, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson remained committed to the idea (with modifications) while seeking ways to improve. However, rather than settling anything, the announcement may have just kicked the real decision down the road.
Once estimated at
Nelson acknowledged the issues at a public announcement,
NASA thinks it has some of the answers. Nelson was speaking while releasing
That report pulled no punches stating; “There is currently no credible, congruent technical, nor properly margined schedule, cost, and technical baseline that can be accomplished with the likely available funding.”
The response outlines some changes to make the mission less complex and less likely to fail, but it’s clear NASA does not think it has all the answers yet. “Safely landing and collecting the samples, launching a rocket with the samples off another planet – which has never been done before – and safely transporting the samples more than 33 million miles back to Earth is no small task. We need to look outside the box to find a way ahead that is both affordable and returns samples in a reasonable timeframe,” Nelson said.
The announcement calls for NASA (and perhaps external) scientists to provide ideas on how to do the job cheaper and hopefully faster. Already, 70 experts have been interviewed and 20 changes to mission design have been evaluated. Most dramatically, the idea of using two Ingenuity-type helicopters to retrieve the samples if Perseverance is no longer operating has been dropped for weight reasons, although the replacement plan is not yet clear.
Instead of the budget being $11 billion, it is now in the $8 billion to $11 billion range, which may not ease the anxiety of planetary scientists focused further out, who fear their projects are on the chopping block. The anticipated return time for the samples Perseverance is
The key obstacle lies in the complexity Nelson referred to. Perseverance and Ingenuity have done their job superbly, collecting some samples scientists can’t wait to get their hands on. To get them back, however, requires flying two spacecraft to Mars. One of these, provided by the European Space Agency (ESA), will go into orbit. The other, the Martian Ascent Vehicle (MAV), will land on the surface, retrieve the samples and return them to the MAV. This will then become the first spacecraft in human history to take off from another planet, rendezvous with the orbiter, and return to Earth, where measures will be taken to prevent any possible lifeforms from killing us all.
Even if some outstanding novel thinking finds a way to slash the costs of one stage of the project, it could be eaten up in cost blowouts elsewhere. After all, these are the norm for missions seeking to do something really new.
Yet to cancel the mission would be a massive blow to NASA’s prestige, as well as to scientific research. For many people, Mars is the planet that matters – not just a place to search for life but our stepping stone to colonize the universe. The 2022 NASA strategic report mentions
The hype about sending humans to Mars emphasizes this. To anyone who has absorbed promises of a
Meanwhile, The Chinese Space Agency has expressed
So NASA is trapped between a red rock and a multitude of hard places. It might hope Congress will come up with more money, but under the current environment that seems a long shot.
Of course, it’s always possible a billionaire will decide they want this project to be their legacy and choose to fund it, or take it over wholesale – but barring that, delays might be NASA’s best option.