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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu looked angry. He railed in a Jan. 18
Netanyahu sounded almost desperate. No matter what has happened on the ground since Hamas’ blood-drenched attack of October 7, the Israeli public has so far shown no indication of forgiving him.
Most countries tend to rally behind their leadership during wartime. But from the first Israeli polls in October to the present, attitudes towards Netanyahu have been abysmal.
Before October 7, Israelis were angry with the ultra-nationalist, right-wing government (elected not even one year earlier), for its plans to crush the independence of the Israeli judiciary. With colossal weekly demonstrations all year, strikes and massive public disruptions, poll after poll showed that the government had lost its parliamentary majority. By September, Netanyahu’s coalition was regularly getting just
After the Hamas attack, the bottom fell out. Most polls show the coalition scoring in the mid-40 seat range, including the regular tracking survey for Maariv newspaper published Jan. 19 , conducted by the pollster Menachem Lazar. In that survey, the original coalition got 44 seats and Likud, Netanyahu’s party just 16, half of the 32 it won in the last election. It’s the second week in a row that Likud has scored so low, but all surveys show the party with just 17-20 seats.
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But people aren’t punishing just the coalition or just Likud. Israelis are furious at Netanyahu personally. When asked which leader is more suitable to be prime minister, the long unrivalled polling king has slid to a distant second place. In mid-November, 41 percent chose Benny Gantz in
Why? The Israeli public has reached the same conclusion as almost every political observer about the prime minister. From late October through to mid-January, weekly
And in a striking finding, the Agam Institute found that the portion of people who hold Netanyahu solely responsible for the disaster of October 7th actually doubled, from 17 to 35 percent among Jewish Israelis. Combined with those who hold him largely responsible, nearly three-quarters see him as the culprit for Israel’s failures that day.
If the surveys prove out, Israel’s longest serving prime minister will exit office on his own petard. Historically, when Netanyahu feels under the gun, he seizes on the same themes Israel is under existential threat; Israel will be annihilated if opponents have their way (whether political competitors in elections, or the U. S. President seeking a two-state solution); and his favorite theme; that he alone can prevent the certain destruction
The Manichean threat has kept in power for the better part of 15 consecutive years. Politically eulogized more times than commentators can count (
But the threat he warned that only he could prevent was realized, and on his watch. “This time,” say those who predict his downfall, “there’s October 7.” There’s also the aftermath. A traumatized public felt abandoned by a government unprepared for the emergency. In recent weeks, anti-government demonstrations have even returned to Tel Aviv, a growing sideshow to the larger protests demanding that the government do more to get Israel’s hostages released. Even Netanyahu’s emergency war cabinet minister, Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff (and newly-bereaved father to a fallen soldier),
And yet, elections are nowhere in sight. If they turn out to be a year or more away, today’s polls will be out of date. By then, October 7 may seem to Israelis less of a threat than the words “Palestinian state,” a phrase that, to some Israelis, carries the threat of another October 7, but worse. After his belligerent words, Netanyahu
For the many Israelis who feel this way, “existential threat” is not just Netanyahu’s campaign posture; it’s simply how they view reality. If no one in Israel makes the opposite case – that the lack of Palestinian freedom, the boot of Israeli occupation on their neck for decades nurtures ongoing cycles of violence forever, Netanyahu might be more convincing than his opponents would like to believe.