When a drone
While President Joe Biden and his foreign policy team have been broadcasting their commitment to preventing a widening of the war for months, the war has, indeed, been
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In a tough election year, Biden will now be considering military options that go beyond the strikes against the Houthis in Yemen. But the president also needs to beware of the consequences: In the current political environment, the electoral costs of escalating a war would likely be far greater than the costs of avoiding one.
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These figures are reflective of a bigger overall trend: voters today have little appetite for U.S. involvement in military conflicts overseas and strongly reject domestic price increases that result from foreign policy decisions.
The nearly one-quarter of 2020 Biden voters who would hold the President responsible for a large increase in gas prices could easily make the difference in a close election. If we look at the election of 2020, for example, just a very small fraction—about 1 in 20—of this contingent of Biden voters could tip the election to Trump, if their disapproval were enough to keep them from voting. And this is a conservative estimation, because we are only looking at voters who would express their discontent by staying home. Some would likely switch to Trump, and therefore have twice as much impact on the outcome as those who abstain.
A substantial increase in gas prices would be a likely consequence of an expanded war. Since the start of the war in Gaza, prominent Republicans, including Lindsay Graham, have been calling for the President to
If Biden truly wants to prevent the spread of war in the Middle East—and, in turn, prevent the election of Donald Trump—then he needs to use the considerable leverage that he has to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza. As long as the war in Gaza continues, the danger of an escalating conflict continues to rise.
It’s now been more than three months since the
Whatever the motivations of Iran and allied regional militias, it is clear that they have been launching attacks in response to Gaza. During the six-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in November,
It’s in the President’s interest to make this happen, given his enormous influence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has relied on the Biden Administration for thousands of tons of munitions, as well as vetoes at the UN Security Council. This is also not unprecedented: President Ronald Reagan was able to convince Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin to stop the bombardment of Lebanon in 1982 by expressing his “outrage” at “
It’s time for President Biden to use his leverage to bring about a ceasefire. This could save thousands of lives and prevent an expanded regional war. It could very well save his presidency, too.